Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report took everyone by surprise and the market’s reaction was swift as the dollar surged across the board. The headline figure came in at a good 209 thousand non-farm jobs added against prior expectations of around 180 thousand. What’s more, June’s number was revised up which brought up the averages during the past three months to a cool 195 thousand jobs per month.
The dollar bulls will certainly want to see a bigger-than-expected rise in the average hourly earnings index. But at 0.3% m/m, expectations are running high and as such the scope for disappointment is there. Meanwhile Canadian employment figures are expected to have risen last month at a slower pace of 13,000 compared to last month’s 45,300 figure.
It's become par for the course for analysts to declare every month's U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report as "THE most important jobs report ever!" but even those with a flair for hyperbole had trouble pumping up today's release. After all, the Fed is almost certainly on hold until at least its December meeting, which is four NFP releases from now (not to mention countless inflation reports, GDP readings, and ISM surveys).
Crude oil prices turned lower as the long-time oil bull, formally known as the "oil god,” threw in the towel on his largest Astenbeck Capital Management LLC commodity fund. Not only did he close the fund, he shook his bullish followers with a blasphemous statement that oil may be stuck around $50 a barrel or lower, I guess, forever. Yet, is this former oil deity, who has been brought back down to mere mortal status, getting out when it is really time to get in?